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Kevin Campbell

Kevin Campbell

Wealth Advisor & Founder of Peaks Financial, Host of Kitsap Matters Podcast, Author of Fearless: Charting Your Course to Financial Independence

Topics

Financial PlanningInvestingMarket VolatilityRetirement PlanningStock Market TrendsWealth Management
FinanceOpinionThought Leadership
Thought Leadership

The September Effect: Volatility, Opportunity, and Staying the Course

If the stock market had a favorite horror movie, I’m convinced it would be The September Effect. Year after year, this month has a habit of showing up with more mood swings than a teenager who just lost Wi-Fi. Historically, it’s been one of the rockier months for investors.

September 1, 2025
166 views
3 min read

Now, before you start stuffing your retirement account under the mattress, let’s take a breath. Volatility doesn’t have to be the villain. In fact, with the right approach, it can be one of the better supporting characters in your financial story.

Why September Can Be Bumpy

Nobody has a perfect explanation, but there are a few theories that pop up every time this topic comes around:

  • Seasonal behavior. After summer vacations, investors get back to their desks and start cleaning house in their portfolios.
  • Economic cycles. A lot of companies wrap up fiscal years in September, which can trigger rebalancing and profit-taking.
  • Psychology. Once enough people believe September will be rough, they tend to act like it will be—sometimes making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Of course, not every September is bad. Some years, the markets go up and nobody mentions this “effect” at all. Still, knowing the history can help you be ready for whatever shows up.

Using the SAIL FORMula to Navigate Through the Chop

At Peaks Financial, I like to keep the process simple and consistent. That’s where the SAIL FORMula comes in:

  • S: Strategy – Does your investment, tax, and financial plan still line up with where you’re headed? A little turbulence is no reason to toss the whole thing overboard, but it’s a good time to make sure the map is still accurate.
  • A: Asset Allocation – How much of your portfolio is in stocks, bonds, and cash? Market swings can knock that balance off. A quick rebalance might help—sometimes letting you buy at a discount.
  • I: Income – If you need your investments to provide income, make sure you’ve got a cushion so you’re not forced to sell when prices are down. Think of it like having enough pantry staples to ride out a storm.
  • L: Legacy – This isn’t tied to the market directly, but it’s tied to your future. Review your beneficiaries, trusts, and estate plans. It’s one of those tasks that’s easy to put off until “later,” which often means “never.”

When Volatility Becomes an Opportunity

Market swings are uncomfortable, but they can also open doors:

  • Rebalancing. It’s not glamorous, but it may help.
  • Tax-loss harvesting. In taxable accounts, selling certain positions at a loss can offset gains elsewhere.
  • Dollar-cost averaging. Keep investing on a set schedule. When prices dip, you get more shares for the same money.

The mistake to avoid? Selling in a panic. That’s how short-term jitters turn into long-term regret.

The Local View: Kitsap’s Reality

For folks here in Kitsap, September’s market bumps often collide with other financial pressures—business owners gearing up for Q4, households juggling back-to-school costs, and everyone eyeing the holiday season ahead. Add in the fact that interest rates are still higher than we’ve been used to, and it’s easy to feel uneasy.

But just like we plan for ferry delays, we can plan for market delays. You don’t cancel the trip—you just leave a little earlier and bring a good book.

The Bottom Line

The September Effect isn’t something to fear. It’s something to understand. If you’ve got a clear strategy, balanced allocation, and enough patience to sit through a little market drama, you’re already ahead of most investors.

So this month, instead of watching the market like a thriller movie, think of it as a good mystery—you may not know the ending, but you’ve read enough chapters to know the hero makes it through.

 

Kevin Campbell is an Investment Advisor Representative of, and advisory services are offered through USA Financial Securities, A Registered Investment Advisor located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Peaks Financial is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities. Investing carries an inherent element of risk and it is possible to lose money. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Kevin Campbell

Kevin Campbell

Wealth Advisor & Founder of Peaks Financial, Host of Kitsap Matters Podcast, Author of Fearless: Charting Your Course to Financial Independence
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